The 2023 KPMG Women’s PGA Championship will be contested this week at Baltusrol Golf Club’s Lower Course, and as always, the conditions will be tough as the world’s best vie for the second major title of the season. With very little rain throughout the last three weeks, the golf course is playing firm and fast, surrounded by deep bunkers and thick rough, and boasts unexpectedly tricky greens that the members say are all affected by the pull of “Baltusrol Mountain,” no matter which way you’re putting. But weather is on the way, threatening to loosen a barrage of rain on Thursday that may or may not affect the firmness of the Lower Course, depending on the amount of water that falls.

As the ball is running out quite a long way if it finds the short grass, Baltusrol can’t help but feel a touch like a links-style venue, even if the trees that Gil Hanse left behind after his restoration of the Lower Course make it appear otherwise. While things like driving accuracy and putting will be crucial to success this week in Springfield, N.J., they aren’t the only ways to forecast who might be hoisting the trophy come Sunday. Here are just a few of the players to watch at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship at Baltusrol.

Boutier

Celine Boutier

Boutier captured her third career LPGA Tour victory earlier this season at the LPGA Drive On Championship at Superstition Mountain, becoming the winningest French player in the association’s 73-year history. Since that win, she’s missed two cuts and recorded three top-15 finishes, including a fifth-place result at the Bank of Hope LPGA Match-Play presented by MGM Rewards after just missing out on a spot in the semifinals.

According to KPMG Performance Insights, Boutier ranks second in bogey avoidance this season at 10.6%, something that will be key around the Baltusrol Lower Course with such challenging conditions and little margin for error on the speedy greens. For context, defending champion In Gee Chun’s average bogey avoidance percentage in the 12 events leading up to the 2022 edition of the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship was 12.5%.

The last two KPMG Women’s PGA Championships saw winners Nelly Korda and Chun finish first and third in strokes gained approach at Atlanta Athletic Club and Congressional Country Club, respectively. While Boutier is currently 68th in strokes gained approach, she is fourth in strokes gained around the green (+0.56) and 18th in strokes gained total (+1.15), excluding players with less than 30% of rounds played. She is also second in scrambling (71%).

Boutier also plays well at linksy venues, finishing in a tie for seventh and second in her last two starts at the Trust Golf Women’s Scottish Open in 2021 and 2022 as well as grabbing another T7 at last year’s AIG Women’s Open at Muirfield. She’s also a player that likes challenging conditions when it comes to wind and rain, some of which we might see later this week at Baltusrol.

Buhai

Ashleigh Buhai

While Ashleigh Buhai may have seemingly spent her luck a couple of weeks ago when she won the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer to earn her second career LPGA Tour victory, the South African’s game sets up well for Baltusrol, despite the exhaustion that comes with playing three straight weeks of high-level golf. She is gaining strokes in every statistical strokes-gained category, most notably ranking fourth in SG: approach, seventh in SG: total and eighth in SG: tee to green. Her bogey avoidance percentage is at 13.39% through 14 events this season, and though she’s 32nd in scrambling, Buhai is fourth in average proximity greater than 50 yards and 24th in greens in regulation.

She became a Rolex First-Time Winner after defeating In Gee Chun in a playoff at the 2022 AIG Women’s Open at Muirfield, another challenging, historic links venue. She opened the 2023 LPGA Tour season with three top-10 finishes in her first three starts but missed back-to-back cuts at the LPGA Drive On Championship at Superstition Mountain and DIO Implant LA Open. Buhai has bounced back nicely though, capturing three other top-15 results in addition to her victory at Seaview, a Dolce Hotel. Buhai currently ranks first in birdies (172) and rounds in the 60s (20) for the 2023 season and has finished in the top 20 in her last three major starts, gaining 2.62 strokes total and sitting at 23-under.

The 34-year-old is the type of player who generally plays pretty well at big venues, and with Baltusrol’s recently restored Lower Course playing fast with penal greens and rough, Buhai should end up in the mix at some point this week.

Furue

Ayaka Furue

Japan’s Ayaka Furue has taken plenty of cracks at trying to capture her second career LPGA Tour victory this season and keeps coming up just a hair shy of doing so, recording five top-five results so far this year, most recently at the Mizuho Americas Open where she finished T4. The 23-year-old isn’t the longest off the tee – Furue is tied for 148th in average driving distance ahead of this week at 247.48 yards – but that may not matter much considering the firm and fast conditions at Baltusrol’s Lower Course.

More importantly, Furue ranks eighth in driving accuracy (85.26%), which will be critical as the Tall-Fescue rough is thick and juicy, making it challenging to control the ball when hitting out of it. She’s also deadly on the greens, draining 93 putts of 10 feet or longer this season, 17 more than any other player, and is fifth in strokes gained putting (+1.22) among players with at least 12 rounds. Although she’s 44th in greens in regulation (69.24%), Furue’s scrambling percentage is 69.16%, a statistic that measures a player’s ability to make par when they miss the green with their approach. This also helps her rank inside the top 10 on Tour in bogey avoidance this season at 11.65%.

Furue is another player who enjoys links golf, winning her only LPGA Tour title in her rookie season last year at the Trust Golf Women’s Scottish Open, after firing a 10-under 62 on Sunday at Dundonald Links.

Hall

Georgia Hall

Like Furue, it seems shocking that two-time LPGA Tour winner Georgia Hall has yet to find her third career victory. Hall had a strong start to the 2023 season, never finishing worse that T14 in her first six starts and grabbing two back-to-back runner ups at the LPGA Drive On Championship at Superstition Mountain and the DIO Implant LA Open. She’s cooled slightly, only managing to record one top-10 in her last four starts, a tie for 10th that came at the Cognizant Founders Cup at Upper Montclair Country Club in Clifton, N.J.

According to KPMG Performance Insights, excluding players with less than 30% of rounds played, Hall is currently ranked fifth in strokes gained total (+1.94), 12th in strokes gained putting, and 14th in strokes gained approach, one statistic that is critical for success, particularly in this major championship. The 27-year-old is also 23rd in greens in regulation and 19th in putts per green in regulation, which bodes well for her performance on the large, fast greens at Baltusrol.

Hall became a Rolex First-Time Winner at the 2018 AIG Women’s Open at Royal Lytham & St Annes, and considering her English heritage, she is plenty familiar with firm-and-fast, links-style golf as well as the rainy weather conditions that come with it. And that should be an advantage with the showers and storms that are plaguing the forecast on tournament days.

Kim

Hyo Joo Kim

Arguably one of the most consistent players on the LPGA Tour this season, Hyo Joo Kim comes to Baltusrol off two consecutive top-five finishes, a solo fifth at the Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give and a solo second at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer. She has one additional top-five on her 2023 resume, a T3 at the DIO Implant LA Open, and Kim has grabbed two other top-10 finishes, a T10 at the Honda LPGA Thailand and a T8 at the HSBC Women’s World Championship. She hasn’t missed a single cut in eight starts and has only finished outside the top 17 once, recording a T48 at the LOTTE Championship presented by Hoakalei where she was defending champion.

Statistically, Kim is gaining strokes in all categories, most notably ranking third in strokes gained tee to green (+1.91), fourth in strokes gained total (+2.05) and sixth in strokes gained approach (+1.17), excluding players with less than 30% of rounds played. She leads the Tour in greens in regulation this season (75.45%), is fourth in putts per green in regulation (1.73) and is ninth in driving accuracy (85.12%). Kim is also second in scoring average (69.23) and seventh in rounds under par (25).

In events that typically feature links golf courses, Kim has recorded three top-15 finishes in the AIG Women’s Open in six starts and two top-15s in the Trust Golf Women’s Scottish Open, including a T3 in the 2022 edition of the event.

Ciganda

Carlota Ciganda

Carlota Ciganda is a player that tends to get hot in the middle of the year. That could bode well for the Spaniard at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship. She started off 2023 with two top-15 finishes in her first five starts of the year, including a T12 at The Chevron Championship, but fell off the wagon a little, missing two consecutive cuts at the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro and Cognizant Founders Cup. In her last three starts ahead of this week at Baltusrol, Ciganda has found the top 10 twice, finishing fifth at the Bank of Hope LPGA Match-Play presented by MGM Rewards and in a tie for eighth at last week’s Meijer LPGA Classic.

While she doesn’t rank highly in strokes gained approach, Ciganda’s strokes gained driving (+0.68) and strokes gained total (+1.25) have her at 10th and 14th respectively. She hits 71.53% of her greens in regulation (22nd) and is 11th in putts per green in regulation, a solid combo if you’re looking to make birdies. Ciganda hasn’t found the winner’s circle since 2016, but she’s come close. Considering her recent form as of late, she just might be a player whose performance will surprise on the Lower Course come Sunday.

Players to Watch: KPMG Women’s PGA Championship

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