Aon Risk Reward Challenge

Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions About the Hole

While this hole has yielded a birdie-or-better more than 40% of the time when playing just over 500 yards, things get really interesting when the tees are pushed up. The forward tee shortens this hole by 77 yards and is expected to improve scoring on this par 5 by nearly half-a-stroke.

Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions Key Decisions

Being the last par-5 on the back-nine, the 15th hole is a scoring chance for this week’s field. Players must decide whether the location of their drive has given them a good enough opportunity to go for the green and take advantage of this reachable par 5.

Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions Aon Insight

Shifting the tee by 77 yards increases a player’s likelihood of going for the green in two by more than 48%, with a more than 40% increase in the number of players that manage to find the putting surface with their second shot. This increase in players going for green due to a shorter approach distance leads to an expected reduction in scoring average of 0.44 strokes.

Gainbridge LPGA  About the Hole

The 16th at Boca Rio yielded a birdie (or eagle) nearly 38 percent of the time at this event in 2020. That number can vary dramatically, though, depending on which tee is in play that round. With the tee pushed up, players are expected to go for the green 79% of the time. When playing the back tee, that number dips to around 33%.

Gainbridge LPGA Key Decision

If players are confident of carrying the array of fairway bunkers on the left with their approach shot, they should go for the green, otherwise the decision to layup could be the more sensible play to avoid a very narrow approach to the green.

Gainbridge LPGA Aon Insight

Laying up short of the left fairway bunkers with the second shot can save players up to 0.39 strokes.

• 120 yards to pin from the fairway (short of bunker) = 2.92 strokes
• 100 yards to the pin from bunker = 3.31 strokes
• 50 yards to the pin from bunker = 2.96 strokes

About the LPGA Drive On Championship

The par-4, 13th hole is expected to provide players with a scoring opportunity on the back nine. This drivable par-4 will be reachable for most of the field during all three days. From the end of the bunker on the right to the front of the green is downhill, helping balls that land short get to the green. However, the green is only 23 yards deep and runoffs around the green will make for a challenging recovery for any ball that does not hold the putting surface.

LPGA Drive On Championship Key Decisions

Off the tee, players must decide whether to hit driver and have a chance at eagle or focus on finding the fairway and relying on their wedges to have a chance at birdie. Players will be sure to assess the weather and wind when standing on the tee, with the contours of the green making it difficult to get up-and-down if they hit a wayward drive.

LPGA Drive On Championship Insight

N/A – new course to the challenge

HSBC Women’s World Championship About the Hole

The par-5, 13th hole at Sentosa Golf Club, is a scoreable par-5 that players will try to take advantage of to keep up with the rest of the field. Players must navigate around the bunkers that line the fairway on both sides to give themselves a chance to reach the green in two shots.

HSBC Women’s World Championship Key Decisions

The key decision for players is whether to go for the green in two shots or lay up and try to get up and down. A drive in the right half of the fairway will give players the best angle into this dogleg left, but most players will have to hit a wood shot to the right-hand side of the green to have a chance of reaching in two shots.

HSBC Women’s World Championship Insight

Players who hit the fairway, 73% in 2019, give themselves the best chance of taking advantage of this hole by reaching the green in two. Hole location on the 15th hole can also determine the strategy players use, with more than half the field making birdie in 2018 when the pin was in the middle of the left-hand side of the green.

Honda LPGA Thailand About the Hole

The par-4, 15th hole at Siam Country Club, is a scoreable par-4 on the back nine, playing 265 yards when the tees are moved up. There is water short of the green, forcing players to decide whether to try and drive the green or laying up with an iron off the tee.

Honda LPGA Thailand Opportunity

Being a drivable par-4 on the back nine, players' key decision will be whether to try to hit their tee shot over the water and drive the green or laying up short of the water and hitting a wedge into the green.

Honda LPGA Thailand Insight

Playing aggressively can pay off for players, with 39 eagles made since 2007 and 133 birdies made in 2019 alone. Coming down the tournament stretch, players view the 15th hole as an excellent opportunity to lower their score to par, with a scoring average in 2019 of 3.56 strokes.

JTBC Classic About the Hole 

Depending on the day, the 16th hole at Aviara Golf Club will have a length differential of 90 yards. Needless to say, this changes the outlook for players’ expectations.

JTBC Classic Key Decision

With the tees back, par is expected to better the field average. From the forward tees, the major of the field is expected to go for the green, yielding a scoring average over par. The key decision for players on the front tee is how willing they are to take on the risk of driving the green, with the penalty area of the left-hand side.

JTBC Classic Insight

Over the past for years, winners at Aviara have had the biggest advantage when the tees are playing back. Winners bested the rest of the field by an average of .13 strokes, with no bogeys or worse, compared to almost a 15% bogey percentage from the rest of the field.

The Chevron Championship About the Hole

Coming down the stretch, the closing hole at Mission Hills requires players to make a key decision down to finish their round. Water protecting the green forces every player to make a decision whether they are willing to take on the risk of going for the green in two.

The Chevron Championship Key Decisions

Based on the location of their drive, players will have to weigh all factors when deciding whether to go for the green in two shots. Players who find the fairway on the closing hole are more than 2.5 times more likely to hit the green in two.

The Chevron Championship Insight

As the final hole at the first major championship of the year, this risk reward finale has decided this major championship throughout the years. Thirteen out of the last twenty editions of this championship have been decided by 1 stroke or in a playoff.

LOTTE Championship About the Hole

The 11th hole at Hoakalei Country Club should provide players with a birdie opportunity to start their back nine. Depending on the tee box selected, players will need to decide whether to play as a three-shot hole or try and reach the green in two.

LOTTE Championship Key Decisions

When playing from the front tee location, finding the fairway should give players the opportunity for an eagle putt, while finding the rough or bunker will most likely result in a lay-up. When playing from the back tees, more of the field will need to rely on their wedge game to make birdie. The change in tee box location is expected to cause a .30 difference in scoring average.

LOTTE Championship Insight

Accuracy off the tee is vital for players trying to reach the green two shots. After finding the fairway from the front tees, 85.6% of the field is expected to go for the green in two shots. Even from the back tees, 50% of the field is expected to take on the green, compared to 30% from the rough.

About the DIO Implant LA Open

The 15th hole at Wilshire Country Club plays brings in two different layers of decision-making and strategy based  on the setup.

When the hole is played back at 528 yards it will force much of the field to lay-up and play this as a three-shot hole.

When the tees are moved up to 459 yards, most players will be able to reach the green in two. Historically, players' scores have ranged from eagle to double bogey.

DIO Implant LA Open Key Decisions

528 yards - The Second Shot. The longest hole on the course gives players the chance to make birdie or better, but they will need  to navigate the 14 bunkers that line the fairway. From the back tees, only longer  players that aggressively challenge the bunkers on the right-hand side will have the opportunity to reach the green, and then must decide whether they can hold the green with a wood or lay up to their preferred distance.

459 yards - From the front tees, most players will have a chance to make birdie, given that they find the fairway with their first shot, missing the bunkers that line the fairway. With most players being able to reach the green, the strategic decision comes into play with their second shot. The green is protected by a deep creek in the front that also wraps around the back left, so players must choose whether to play aggressively at the flag, or the more conservative play towards the bunker protecting the back-right.

DIO Implant LA Open Insight

While there is potential trouble, the 15th hole is a scoring opportunity that players will want to take advantage  of, especially when the tees are moved up. The scoring average on this hole drops from 5.02 to 4.52 when the hole plays 459 yards.

About the Palos Verdes Championship presented by Bank of America

The 16th hole at Palos Verdes Golf Club is a dog leg left that slopes right to left in the landing zone. Carrying the fairway mound will provide the extra yardage needed to have the opportunity to go for the green in two shots.

Palos Verdes Championship presented by Bank of America Key Decisions

Players that find the fairway will have to decide whether they should go for the green in two or lay up to a preferred wedge distance. Water on the left-hand side of the hole comes into play whether laying up or going for the green, with bunkers on the right-hand side of the green creating a narrow opening if players land short of the green.

Palos Verdes Championship presented by Bank of America Insights

Being accurate off the tee is expected to be more valuable when the tees are moved up. We expect more than 3 times as many players to hit the green in two from the front tees, vs the back when find the fairway.

Cognizant Founders Cup About the Hole

The 12th hole at Upper Montclair Country Club is a dog leg right that forces players to make a decision at the tee box and with their second shot. This is the only hole on property without a bunker and the creek in front of the green will force players to either land on the green, or lay-up to a full wedge distance.

Cognizant Founders Cup Key Decision

Off the tee, players will need to decide whether to hit a driver shaping from left to right or lay up with a fairway wood on a more conservative line. Once in the fairway, players will have a chance to go for the green with their second shot. The green is guarded by the creek in the front and mounds behind the green, requiring a perfectly executed shot for a chance at eagle.

Cognizant Founders Cup Insight

While about one-third of the field is expected to reach the green in two, players that lay-up will need to be precise with their second shot. With the pin in the front, getting as close to the water as possible is the play for the field. When in the back, better scores are expected to come from the 85-90 yard range.

About the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer

The final hole at the ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer requires accuracy off the tee, in order to take on the risk and go for the green in two.

ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer Key Decision

Based on where players stand on the leaderboard, they will need to decide on going for the green with their second shot or laying up to an ideal yardage to take advantage of this birdie opportunity.

ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer Insight

Players who find the fairway are expected to go for the green at a clip of almost nine-times more with their second shot than those who find the rough or fairway bunker. In 2021, Celine Boutier’s birdie on the 18th hole increased her win probability by 31%.

About the Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give

The 14th hole at the Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give is a good opportunity for the field to may birdie or he back nine, with an eagle opportunity if executed correctly. In 2021, Nelly Korda gained a total of 3.1 strokes over the field, improving her chances of winning the tournament by 24%.

Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give Key Decision

A drive in the fairway should give players the opportunity to go for the green in two shots, but water on the left and trees short of the green may force some of the field to lay up and trust their wedge skills.

Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give Aon Insight

Playing about slightly shorter in 2021, the 14th hole at Blythefield Country Club yielded a birdie-or-better 48% of the time. Players are expected to be able to go for the green in two at a rate of more than 60%. Nelly Korda’s eagle in 2021 all but sealed her victory, increasing her win probability to 89%.

KPMG Women's PGA Championship About the Hole 

No longer a straight away hole, the par 5, 11th provides players with an opportunity to go for the green in two, if they can take advantage with their tee shot.

KPMG Women's PGA Championship Key Decision

Both fairways slope towards the creek separating the two fairways, requiring players to be precise with their first and second shot. If players decide to lay up, the pin position will ultimate dictate their ideal layup location, but a decision must be made about laying up on the left or right of the creek.

KPMG Women's PGA Championship Insight

Finding the right-hand side of the fairway is advantageous if trying to reach the green in two, giving players the ideal angle with their second shot. The back left portion of the green should be the most receptive location if players are looking to reach the green with their second shot.

About the Amundi Evian Championship

The final hole at Evian Resort Golf Club provides a great scoring opportunity for players who make better decisions from tee to green, while trying to close out their round. In 2021, Minjee Lee played this hole in 5-under par throughout the week, overcoming a 7-shot deficit for her first major championship.

The Amundi Evian Championship Key Decision

Standing on the tee, players are aware of the ability to reach the green in two with an accurate drive. Based on their position, they must decide whether to go for the green, making sure they can clear the water in the front, or lay back and test their wedge game.

The Amundi Evian Championship Insight

In 2021, players who found the fairway were able to go for the green in two shots 91% of the time, compared to 33% of the time from players missing the fairway.

About the Trust Golf Women's Scottish Open

Playing at over 500 yards, the 14^th hole at Dundonald Links will test players decision making from tee to green. As is the case with most Scottish golf, weather can play a significant factor in scoring: the last time the Scottish Open was played at Dundonald, scoring improved by about three tenths of a stroke when the winds died down.

Trust Golf Women's Scottish Open Key Decision

Weighing their position after their drive in the lie, players must decide whether to reach this green in two or lay up to their preferred distance. Compared to the average LPGA Tour drive distance, an additional 10 yards of distance off the tee is expected to increase a player’s likelihood to go for the green by 10%.

Trust Golf Women's Scottish Open Insight

With 250 yards remaining to the center of the green, 42% of the field is expected to go for the green with their second shot, with 9% of the field expected to reach the putting surface. Off the tee, finding the fairway is expected to triple a player’s success rate and lead to .2 and .4 strokes gained over those that find the rough or bunker.

About the AIG Women's Open

The 17^th hole at Muirfield is expected to be a scoring opportunity for players, ultimately depending on their accuracy off the tee. Players should make sure to avoid the bunkers on the left hand side, where deep fairway bunkers are severely penalizing.

AIG Women's Open Key Decision

The key decision on the final par-5 of the round is if players should go for the green with their second shot. Players are expected to go for the green 43% of the time from the fairway, but players chances will also be impacted by wind. Should players be in the fairway and have the opportunity to reach the green, look for lower ball flights, taking advantage of the firm conditions to gain distance.

AIG Women's Open Insight

Avoiding the left bunkers are paramount off the tee. A miss to the left eliminates any opportunity players will have to reach the green in two, and the nature of the bunkers challenges players with their second shot to find the fairway. The expected scoring average for a drive in the fairway vs a drive in the left bunkers is nearly four-tenths of a stroke.

About the Marathon Classic

The 17th hole at Highland Meadows Golf Club challenges players off the tee with a uphill, blind shot into a narrow fairway. If players can find the fairway, many will have a go at the bunker-protected green.

Marathon Classic Key Decision

Players' key decision will be made on the second shot. Knowing there are no major hazards, most players will try to go for the green or push their lay-up as close as possible to the green giving them an eagle opportunity or manageable up-and-down birdie opportunity.

Marathon Classic Insight

Distance is key on this hole, with an uphill tee shot making the hole play longer than the scorecard indicates. With a tree lined fairway as the only obstacle, players who can get their second shot close to the green will have the best chance of scoring birdie, 39% in 2019.

About the Cambia Portland Classic

The final hole at the Cambia Portland Classic is an uphill par-5, with a penalty area stretching down the entire length of the left side of the hole. The fairway slopes towards the penalty area and the fairway narrows deeper into the landing zone

Cambia Portland Classic Key Decision - Second Shot

On the second shot, players must decide on a relatively easy layup or to go for the green, navigating a narrow opening to avoid a large greenside bunker to the right of the green and the penalty area on the left. The green also slopes from front to back, requiring a high approach shot to hold the green

Cambia Portland Classic Insight

N/A (new hole to challenge)

About the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship Presented by P&G

The 14th hole at Pinnacle Country Club is a demanding par-5 that requires 3 quality shots to have a chance at birdie. Water in front of the green limit most of the field’s chance to reach the green in two, with the contours on the green making even short wedge shots difficult.

Walmart NW Arkansas Championship Presented by P&G Key Decision

Players key decision on the 14th hole starts with what club to hit off the tee. In order to have a chance at birdie, players need to hit three quality shots, starting with finding the fairway with their tee shot. Some players will hit driver, while others will hit a three wood or long iron, committing to playing this hole in three shots.

Walmart NW Arkansas Championship Presented by P&G Insight

The Aon Insight tells us that while the fourteenth yielded an under-par scoring rate of only 29% in last year’s tournament, those who registered a GIR were a collective 117-under par on the hole versus those who missed the green, resulting in a collective score of 29-over.

About the Volunteers of America Classic

The par-5, 17th hole at Old American Golf Club presents a clear scoring opportunity  coming down the back-nine. Off the tee, players must avoid missing left, with water flanking the entire side of the hole. There are also two bunkers in the center of the fairway.

Volunteers of America Classic Key Decision

The key decision players face on the 17th hole is whether to go for the green in two shots or lay-up short of the bunkers and have a full wedge into the green.

Volunteers of America Classic Insight

Players must take advantage of this hole, with 172 birdies compared to 29 bogeys  throughout the week in 2019. Being aggressive should pay off for players going for the green, as long as there is no head wind.

About the LPGA MEDIHEAL Championship Hole

The 15th hole is a straightaway par-5 that is reachable in two and an ideal scoring opportunity late on the back nine. Bunkers on the left side of the fairway protects the landing area and the green, which is surrounded by five bunkers, can be difficult to navigate.

LPGA MEDIHEAL Championship Key Decisions

Playing at 479 yards, players must decide whether to go for the green on their second shot, or lay up to set up a wedge into the green. Most players' strategy will be dependent on if they are able to find the fairway (74% in 2019).

LPGA MEDIHEAL Championship Insight

Players who find the fairway should be more aggressive with their second shot. 19 eagles were made throughout the week in 2019, including 8 on Sunday, with no player recording a score worse than bogey. Aggressive players had the opportunity to gain a shot on the field, with little risk.

About the BMW Ladies Championship

The 11th hole is a straightaway par-5, with two bunkers on the left-hand side of the landing zone, and water up the right-hand side that comes into play on the second shot.

BMW Ladies Championship Key Decision

The key decision for players on the 8th hole is whether to hit driver or lay up with a wood or long iron on the left side of the fairway. Laying up short and left will give players the best chance at getting up and down

BMW Ladies Championship Insight

Overall, 43% of the field made birdie or better in 2019, with a scoring average of 4.62. Players who hit the green in regulation were a combined 95-under par compared to the 6-over par when they missed the green.

About the Pelican Women's Championship

The 14th hole at Pelican Golf Club is a 500 yard plus par 5, with an open fairway allowing players to hit driver off the tee.

Pelican Women's Championship Key Decision

For players finding the fairway off the tee, almost all players will make the decision to take advantage of this scoring opportunity and go for the green in two. If players decide to lay up, they will need hit their second shot with the distance for their approach in mind. Three bunkers in the lay-up zone will require a precise second shot to take advantage of this hole.

Pelican Women's Championship Insight

Scoring under par here is extremely valuable to one’s tournament success. Collectively, those who made the cut scored 91-under-par, while those who missed the cut only managed a combined 7-under-par on the 14th through 353 total rounds.